000 02238cam a2200265 i 4500
999 _c22083
_d22083
020 _a9780316451406
082 0 4 _a153.83
_bKAH
100 1 _aKahneman, Daniel,
_d1934-
245 1 0 _aNoise :
_ba flaw in human judgment /
_cDaniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, Cass R. Sunstein.
250 _aFirst edition.
260 _aNew York :
_bLittle, Brown Spark,
_c©2021
300 _aix, 454 pages :
_billustrations ;
_c25 cm
504 _aIncludes bibliographical references and index.
505 0 _aIntroduction: Two kinds of error -- Part I. Finding noise: Crime and noisy punishment ; A noisy system ; Singular decisions -- Part II. Your mind is a measuring instrument: Matters of judgment ; Measuring error ; The analysis of noise ; Occasion noise ; How groups amplify noise -- Part III. Noise in predictive judgments: Judgments and models ; Noiseless rules ; Objective ignorance ; The valley of the normal -- Part IV. How noise happens: Heuristics, biases, and noise ; The matching operation ; Scale ; Patterns ; The sources of noise -- Part V. Improving judgments: Better judges for better judgments ; Debiasing and decision hygiene ; Sequencing information in forensic science ; Selection and aggregation in forecasting ; Guidelines in medicine ; Defining the scale in performance ratings ; Structure in hiring ; The mediating assessments protocol -- Part VI. Optimal noise: The costs of noise reduction ; Dignity ; Rules or standards? -- Review and conclusion: Taking noise seriously -- Epilogue: A less noisy world -- Appendix A: How to conduct a noise audit -- Appendix B: A checklist for a decision observer -- Appendix C: Correcting predictions.
520 _aDiscusses why people make bad judgments and how to make better ones by reducing the influence of "noise"--variables that can cause bias in decision making--and draws on examples in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, strategy, and personnel selection.
650 0 _aJudgment.
650 0 _aDecision making.
650 0 _aReasoning (Psychology)
650 7 _aDecision making.
650 7 _aJudgment.
650 7 _aReasoning (Psychology)
700 1 _aSibony, Olivier,
700 1 _aSunstein, Cass R.,
942 _2ddc
_cBK